The Elon Musk Offer: Extinction or Explosion

Elon Musk wants to take you to Mars. He also wants you to know that there’s a very good chance you’ll die doing so. Yesterday, at the International Astronautical Congress, Musk announced a lot more about SpaceX’s plans to get to Mars and opened up a little about the notion of colonising the Red Planet. He was also, almost shockingly, upfront about just how much such a mission is likely to kill you.

Musk’s speech, entitled Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species, largely consisted of explaining more about SpaceX’s Interplanetary Transport System and how the company plans to get people and supplies to Mars.

The plan involves 28,730,000 pounds of thrust and reusable booster rockets. And while Musk spoke about colonisation, it was in a way that very much avoided any kind of commitment on how such a colony would work and what role SpaceX would possibly play in it.

For now it seems the entrepreneur is very much focused on just getting there.

Images courtesy of SpaceX

Images courtesy of SpaceX

What was mentioned was the idea of a self-sustaining civilisation, presumably making some sort of use of Musk’s various clean energy ventures, and the goal of making the cost of a trip to Mars that of a median price house in the United States.

In order to do so we need four things: reusable rockets, refuelling the spaceship in space, using methane fuel rather than traditional propellant and harvesting methane fuel from Mars itself.

If it sounds like a lot of work, be assured it is; Musk made no mention of the infrastructure that would support this though he did point out that there would be no shortage of jobs on Mars if successful. Provided you get there of course.

Even allowing for the overcoming of technical challenges, there is still a very good chance that our initial tries at getting people there will fail horribly.

“The risk of fatality will be high,” Musk told the audience. “There’s no way around it. It would be basically, are you prepared to die? If that’s okay, you’re a candidate for going.

“The probability of death is quite high on the first mission.”

Elon Musk during the talk

Elon Musk during the talk

Musk’s honesty is kind of refreshing, even if it’s distinctly bleak. The chances of such a mission going perfectly on the first try are very low and it’s important to remember for anyone caught up in the excitement of going multiplanetary that there is a good chance of a cold death in space waiting out there.

That said, as Musk pointed out, staying on Earth indefinitely almost certainly ends in some kind of extinction event.

There is currently far too much uncertainty around the way in which a colony on Mars would actually work, the likelihood is that there would have to be some kind of governmental oversight of the colonisation and there are obviously chances of a whole new space race that come along with that.

Musk’s presentation was there to offer up a choice: stay on Earth and face extinction in what may be the far future or go to Mars now and almost definitely go out in a blaze of glory.

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Juno mission: Jupiter’s magnetic field is even weirder than expected

It has long been known that Jupiter has the most intense magnetic field in the solar system, but the first round of results from NASA’s Juno mission has revealed that it is far stronger and more misshapen than scientists predicted.

Announcing the findings of the spacecraft’s first data-collection pass, which saw Juno fly within 2,600 miles (4,200km) of Jupiter on 27th August 2016, NASA mission scientists revealed that the planet far surpassed the expectations of models.

Measuring Jupiter’s magnetosphere using Juno’s magnetometer investigation (MAG) tool, they found that the planet’s magnetic field is even stronger than models predicted, at 7.766 Gaus: 10 times stronger than the strongest fields on Earth.

Furthermore, it is far more irregular in shape, prompting a re-think about how it could be generated.

“Juno is giving us a view of the magnetic field close to Jupiter that we’ve never had before,” said Jack Connerney, Juno deputy principal investigator and magnetic field investigation lead at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

“Already we see that the magnetic field looks lumpy: it is stronger in some places and weaker in others.

An enhanced colour view of Jupiter’s south pole. Image courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/MSSS/Gabriel Fiset. Featured image courtesy of NASA/SWRI/MSSS/Gerald Eichstädt/Seán Doran

At present, scientists cannot say for certain why or how Jupiter’s magnetic field is so peculiar, but they do already have a theory: that the field is not generated from the planet’s core, but in a layer closer to its surface.

“This uneven distribution suggests that the field might be generated by dynamo action closer to the surface, above the layer of metallic hydrogen,” said Connerney.

However, with many more flybys planned, the scientists will considerable opportunities to learn more about this phenomenon, and more accurately pinpoint the bizarre magnetic field’s cause.

“Every flyby we execute gets us closer to determining where and how Jupiter’s dynamo works,” added Connerney.

With each flyby, which occurs every 53 days, the scientists are treated to a 6MB haul of newly collected information, which takes around 1.5 days to transfer back to Earth.

“Every 53 days, we go screaming by Jupiter, get doused by a fire hose of Jovian science, and there is always something new,” said Scott Bolton, Juno principal investigator from the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio.

A newly released image of Jupiter’s stormy south pole. Image courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/MSSS/Betsy Asher Hall/Gervasio Robles

An unexpected magnetic field was not the only surprise from the first data haul. The mission also provided a first-look at Jupiter’s poles, which are unexpectedly covered in swirling, densely clustered storms the size of Earth.

“We’re puzzled as to how they could be formed, how stable the configuration is, and why Jupiter’s north pole doesn’t look like the south pole,” said Bolton. “We’re questioning whether this is a dynamic system, and are we seeing just one stage, and over the next year, we’re going to watch it disappear, or is this a stable configuration and these storms are circulating around one another?”

Juno’s Microwave Radiometer (MWR) also threw up some surprises, with some of the planet’s belts appearing to penetrate down to its surface, while others seem to evolve into other structures. It’s a curious phenomenon, and one which the scientists hope to better explore on future flybys.

“On our next flyby on July 11, we will fly directly over one of the most iconic features in the entire solar system – one that every school kid knows – Jupiter’s Great Red Spot,” said Bolton.

“If anybody is going to get to the bottom of what is going on below those mammoth swirling crimson cloud tops, it’s Juno and her cloud-piercing science instruments.”