Eight-year study casts serious doubt on future food security

An extensive study designed to simulate the growing conditions of the future has cast significant doubt on widely held assumptions about the impact of climate change on food production, suggesting that we will face significant crop failures far sooner than previously thought.

The study, which is published today in the journal Nature Plants, saw researchers from the University of Illinois conduct an eight year-long study of soybeans that were grown outdoors in a carbon dioxide-rich atmosphere.  This was designed to mimic the higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations that we are projected to experience by 2050.

It had been thought that the increased levels of CO₂ would balance future water shortages, by prompting the plans to reduce the size of the pores in their leaves and so reducing gaseous exchange with the atmosphere. This would reduce the amount of water the plants needed from the soil, resulting in crops that were only minimally affected by climate change.

“If you read the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and if you read the scientific literature on the subject for the last 30 years, the concluding statement is nearly always that elevated carbon dioxide will ameliorate drought stress in crops,” explained lead author Andrew Leakey, an associate professor of plant biology at the University of Illinois.

However, the study found a flaw in that premise, in that it only works in wetter growing seasons.

“[The theory] was consistent with what we saw with our own experiments the first four years, the relatively wet years,” added Leakey. “But when the growing seasons were hot and dry, that pattern broke down.”

The Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment facility, which allowed researchers to simulate the CO₂-rich environment of 2050. Image courtesy of Don Hamerman

The Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment facility, which allowed researchers to simulate the CO₂-rich environment of 2050. Image courtesy of Don Hamerman

The researchers created the CO₂-rich environment in real farm fields using a technology known as the Soybean Free Air Concentration Enrichment Facility. This featured sensors that that can measure wind speed and direction, prompting the regulated release of gases to simulate higher concentrations of CO₂.

This allowed the researchers to determine that plants grown in a hot, dry CO₂-rich environment needed more water than plants growing under the same conditions but with current atmospheric CO₂ levels; the opposite of what previous research had suggested.

“All of the model predictions up to this point were assuming that in 2050, elevated CO₂ was going to give us a 15% increase in yield over what we had at the beginning of this century,” Leakey said. “And what we’re seeing is that as it gets hotter and drier, that number diminishes to zero. No gain.

“What we think is happening is that early in the growing season, when the plant has enough water, it’s able to photosynthesize more as a result of the higher CO2 levels. It’s got more sugars to play with, it grows more, it creates all this extra leaf area. But when it gets dry, the plant has overextended itself, so later in the season it’s now using more water.”

soybean-crop

The research has significant implications for the management of food security in the future, with soybeans being the fourth biggest food crop in the world by area harvested.

In addition to providing a valuable source of protein for nonmeat eaters, they are used in a wide array of foods, oils and sauces, particularly in East Asia where the crop has formed a significant part of the diet since at least 7,000 BC.

Soybeans are also used extensively for livestock feed, making their importance for food security even greater.

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Juno mission: Jupiter’s magnetic field is even weirder than expected

It has long been known that Jupiter has the most intense magnetic field in the solar system, but the first round of results from NASA’s Juno mission has revealed that it is far stronger and more misshapen than scientists predicted.

Announcing the findings of the spacecraft’s first data-collection pass, which saw Juno fly within 2,600 miles (4,200km) of Jupiter on 27th August 2016, NASA mission scientists revealed that the planet far surpassed the expectations of models.

Measuring Jupiter’s magnetosphere using Juno’s magnetometer investigation (MAG) tool, they found that the planet’s magnetic field is even stronger than models predicted, at 7.766 Gaus: 10 times stronger than the strongest fields on Earth.

Furthermore, it is far more irregular in shape, prompting a re-think about how it could be generated.

“Juno is giving us a view of the magnetic field close to Jupiter that we’ve never had before,” said Jack Connerney, Juno deputy principal investigator and magnetic field investigation lead at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

“Already we see that the magnetic field looks lumpy: it is stronger in some places and weaker in others.

An enhanced colour view of Jupiter’s south pole. Image courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/MSSS/Gabriel Fiset. Featured image courtesy of NASA/SWRI/MSSS/Gerald Eichstädt/Seán Doran

At present, scientists cannot say for certain why or how Jupiter’s magnetic field is so peculiar, but they do already have a theory: that the field is not generated from the planet’s core, but in a layer closer to its surface.

“This uneven distribution suggests that the field might be generated by dynamo action closer to the surface, above the layer of metallic hydrogen,” said Connerney.

However, with many more flybys planned, the scientists will considerable opportunities to learn more about this phenomenon, and more accurately pinpoint the bizarre magnetic field’s cause.

“Every flyby we execute gets us closer to determining where and how Jupiter’s dynamo works,” added Connerney.

With each flyby, which occurs every 53 days, the scientists are treated to a 6MB haul of newly collected information, which takes around 1.5 days to transfer back to Earth.

“Every 53 days, we go screaming by Jupiter, get doused by a fire hose of Jovian science, and there is always something new,” said Scott Bolton, Juno principal investigator from the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio.

A newly released image of Jupiter’s stormy south pole. Image courtesy of NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/MSSS/Betsy Asher Hall/Gervasio Robles

An unexpected magnetic field was not the only surprise from the first data haul. The mission also provided a first-look at Jupiter’s poles, which are unexpectedly covered in swirling, densely clustered storms the size of Earth.

“We’re puzzled as to how they could be formed, how stable the configuration is, and why Jupiter’s north pole doesn’t look like the south pole,” said Bolton. “We’re questioning whether this is a dynamic system, and are we seeing just one stage, and over the next year, we’re going to watch it disappear, or is this a stable configuration and these storms are circulating around one another?”

Juno’s Microwave Radiometer (MWR) also threw up some surprises, with some of the planet’s belts appearing to penetrate down to its surface, while others seem to evolve into other structures. It’s a curious phenomenon, and one which the scientists hope to better explore on future flybys.

“On our next flyby on July 11, we will fly directly over one of the most iconic features in the entire solar system – one that every school kid knows – Jupiter’s Great Red Spot,” said Bolton.

“If anybody is going to get to the bottom of what is going on below those mammoth swirling crimson cloud tops, it’s Juno and her cloud-piercing science instruments.”